10 Bold Predictions for 2019

We are just a couple of weeks away from seeing the Bears in action, but before then, let me lay out ten bold predictions of things you may see this season. Last seasons’ game predictions should have taught me not to try and predict the future in any way, but here I am. 

The goal here is to float out ideas that are reached. There is no fun in picking BHP to beat Palmetto because it always happens. Let me know how much of a reach these actually are.

 

1) RJ Ellis will rush for over 2,000 yards

 

I am opening up with a hot one. Last season Ellis played only 7 of the 11 games. In those games, he rushed for 881 yards. He rushed for over 100 yards in all but two of the games he played. If we averaged the five games in which we feel he was fully healthy last year and project that to a full year, he would have rushed for over 1,600 last year. 

So how do we get from 1,600 to 2,000? Well, a couple of factors: 

First, he is a senior. This should be his most dominant season both physically and mentally. 

Second, coming into the season he is fully healthy. This has been the limiting factory for him, so being healthy is a huge step in the right direction. 

Lastly, BHP loses a quarterback that threw for the second-most passing yards in BHP history to graduation. Bringing in a new quarterback will be tough, but a new quarterback’s best friend is an explosive and reliable run game. So with the inexperience at QB I would think BHP will look to hand it off as much as they can. 

Also, if Ellis rushes for over 2,000 yards it would put him as the second all-time rusher in BHP history. That would be a great goal to have and chase after. 

 

2) BHP will go undefeated in region play and win their 12th region championship

 

BHP has won two of the last three region championships, but have not won back to back region championships since the 2005-2006 seasons. Although the last time it happened at BHP, it came at the end of five straight region titles from 2002-2006. In addition, since 2010 BHP has only gone undefeated in the region twice. 

With that being said, this team has a great shot at both. First, the experience on the defense, running back, and offensive line. This is a great way to build a championship team. And with an inexperienced QB starting the season, he will have five games to build gametime maturity leading up to region play. 

Second, their schedule is favorable. Three of the five region opponents will return a starter at QB, but BHP will play all three of those games at home. BHP will be looking for revenge after last season's region lost to Walhalla, look to continue dominance over Palmetto and Pickens, then set up a final two-game matchup against Wren and Daniel for the region title. I see BHP winning all five region games and bringing home back to back region championships. 

 

3) BHP will rush for 400 yards in two separate games

 

Since 2015 BHP has rushed for over 400 yards twice but rushed over 300 yards 18 times. The most rushing yards as a team for BHP was set in 2015 against Wren with 508 rushing yards and the most rushing yards as a player was set by Anthony White in 2013 against Wren with 409 rushing yards. 

As we said, we are very excited to see how explosive the running game can be this season. With the three top rushers and multiple offensive linemen returning from last season, we feel like this will be a strong suit for the Bears. 

With the returning experience, BHP also has a history of huge rushing games against teams that are scheduled this season. Four of the top five rushing games for BHP since 2014 have come against Powdersville, Wren, and Palmetto. We expect there to be some huge rushing numbers this season (see bold prediction #1) and because of that, there will have to be a few games where BHP puts up huge rushing numbers. 

To go a little bolder, one 400 rushing yard game will be the first game of the season against Powdersville and the 9th game against Wren (hey, and maybe against little brother Palmetto too). 

4) BHP will have more rushing TDs than punts

 

Last season BHP rushed for 19 TDs and punted 31 times. However, since 2014 BHP has averaged 33 rushing TDs per season. The 19 rushing TDs last season was the first time since 2014 that BHP rushed for less than 25 TDs in a season. 

I think with the focus on running the ball, BHP will get back to the 35 - 40 rushing TD range. That coupled with another season of lower punting numbers will allow BHP to rush for more TDs than punts. 

5) BHP will not allow more than 200 total points (in the regular season)

 

This may be the most out-there prediction on this list. Mainly because of how football has changed and how explosive offenses can be. 

Since 2000 BHP has allowed 200 or fewer points in a regular season 17 times. The only times they did not was 2018 and 2005. However, three of the top five regular season points allowed since 2000 came in the last four seasons. 

I do see the defense improving from last season. One, the defense has experience at each level. Second, this will be the second full season under Defensive Coordinator Jennings. Those two aspects will lead to a much-improved defense and a defense that gets BHP back to the dominant defensive force of the past. 

6) BHP will cause more interceptions than throw interceptions

 

This has happened twice in the last 5 years; in 2017 with 8 thrown interceptions and 11 interceptions caused and in 2014 with 13 interceptions and 20 interceptions caused. 

BHP returns most of the defensive backfield and two starting linebackers from last season’s team. Coming into the season this could be one of the most experienced and talented defensive back groups ever at BHP. And with that, it is going to be treatorous to throw against this defense. 

Also in grooming a new QB, I feel the coaching staff will take fewer chances in the passing game. One, throwing a lot less passes overall and two, calling for safer pass options when passing. These two reasons could lead to BHP causing more interceptions than throwing interceptions. 

7) Coach Blackston will surpass 89 wins as the BHP head coach and be the winningest coach in school history

 

This one isn’t so bold, but more of a given. Coach Blackston comes into the season with 84 career wins at BHP, only five wins away from becoming the all-time winningest coach in BHP history. This is a given for one, as Coach Blackston has not won less than eight games in any season that he has been the head coach at BHP. Plus, BHP has only had one losing season in the last 20 years. 

Along with that, with one playoff win Coach Blackston will have the most play wins in BHP history. 

Easy, Right? 

8) Braylon Oliver will catch 40 passes, gain over 1,000 yards receiving, and score 18 TD

 

Last season Oliver had 15 receptions for 451 yards, a 30.1 yards per catch average. With that, he scored 8 TDs. He scored at least one TD in five games and in those games he averaged 38.8 yards per catch. 

How do we get from those numbers to 40 receptions, 1,000 yards, and 18 TDs? Well, I’m glad you asked. 

Let’s say in six games he catches two passes for 50 total yards, that starts us out at 300 yards. The has three decent games and catches three passes per game and gains 85 yards per game. That brings us up to 555 yards and 21 catches. Then he has two good games where he catches five passes for 125 yards. Now we are at 31 receptions for 805 yards. Then out of nowhere, he explodes for a nine reception night and 200 yards. That brings his season total (counting assumed playoff games that I am factoring in) to 40 receptions and 1,005 yards. 

How about the touchdowns? Last season Oliver scored a touchdown every 1.875 reception. If he replicated that rate with the 40 receptions we just laid out, he would score 21 TDs. 

9) Joseph Sloan will lead the region in tackles and tackles for loss

 

Last Season Sloan led all Bears in first hits, assisted tackles, and solo tackles. Sloan was also 9th in the region in total tackles per game with 7.9 tackles per game. Of the eight players ahead of Sloan with more tackles per game from region 1-AAAA, only two were underclassmen. 

I can see a huge step taken by Sloan with another season of experience at linebacker and a position where he will be put in positions to make a lot of plays. It is not much of a leap to expect Sloan to go from 7.9 tackles per game to 11.5 or 12 per game which would have led the region last season. 

10) BHP will have more defensive TDs than special teams TDs

 

BHP scored more defensive TDs than special teams TDs in 2014, 2015, and 2016, but not in the last two seasons. 

I maybe discounting BHP’s special teams but with the talent in the defensive backfield, I can see multiple pick-sixes happening this season. In the last five seasons, BHP has averaged 1.4 special teams TDs a year. Plus, defensive or special teams TDs are some of the most fun TDs in a game so we will be pulling either way with this prediction. 

Conclusion

 

Well, there you have it, 10 bold predictions. From a 2,000 yard rusher to a 1,000-yard receiver to the most winningest coach in BHP history. Although some might be a stretch, we think they are all reachable. 

What do you think? Do you think these will totally happen or no way they turn out? Do you have any bold predictions? Let us hear them. 

Just a couple of weeks away, but the season is getting closer. Make sure to stay up to date and get notified when our posts are out by following us on Facebook and Twitter.