Bold Predictions 2022

Bold Predictions 2022

Last week we went over five major questions this Bear team has to answer this season. This week we put some lofty predictions out in the ether. We have some high expectations for this Bear team and these bold predictions show just how far the team can surpass those expectations.

Plus, I might as well aim high.

1) BHP will have two 1,000-yard rushers.

Starting out hot with this one. Definitely, since 2014, this has not been done at BHP, but doing as much research as I could, I am confident to say BHP has never had two 1,000-yard rushers in the same season, until now.

Let’s break this down as to how it can happen. There have only been five seasons with 1,000-yard rushers at BHP since 2014. Those five years were all tallied by three players. (RJ Ellis - 2017, 2019; Jawunn Abney - 2014, 2015; and O'Ryan Warren - 2016). Those rushers averaged 206 rushes per season in those five seasons. Then, if we take Marquise Henderson's stats from last year (94 rushes for 892 yards or 9.49 yards per carry). If we extrapolate Henderson’s 2021 average over the average rushes for a season for the previous 1,000-yard rushers, we get over 1,900 yards. So one 1,000-yard rusher down, one to go.

Now let’s look at AJ. Pendleton. Last season he rushed for 619 yards on 161 attempts for a 3.84 yards per carry average. That average is not very good, but if we dive deeper, we see that 45 of the rushes went for -215 yards. This could mainly be attributed to sacks because the sack is recorded as a rush. If we removed those 45 rushes, Pendleton would have rushed for 834 yards on 116 carries for 7.2 yards per carry. Now if we start putting the pieces together with Henderson being the focus of the defense and explosive receivers on the outside, the opportunity for Pendleton to use his athleticism could be more prevalent this year.

Last season, Pendleton averaged 4.1 negative rushes per game. If that can be reduced to 2 per game, keeping every other aspect the same, he could be looking at 918 total yards. If this were the case, he would just need to get 12 more carries than last season and he would break the 1,000-yard mark.

Will it be easy, no, but that is what makes this a bold prediction.

2) BHP will have a +10 turnover differential.

Last season BHP had 17 offensive turnovers while causing 18 turnovers on defense. So how does BHP go from a +1 to a +10 turnover differential? Like this: more rushing, more experience at quarterback, experience at linebackers and safety positions.

More rushing? I think we have hammered this point home. This year’s team can become one of the best rushing teams in BHP history. With that, BHP is less likely to fumble the ball. Last season, BHP lost 4 fumbles on 522 attempts or 0.7% of rushes. This is in contrast to the 11 interceptions thrown on 148 attempts or 7.4% of passes. By rushing at a higher rate than passing, theoretically, the overall turnover numbers would go down. Coupling the higher number of rushing attempts with a more experienced quarterback, we could see the overall offensive turnovers drop to below 10 for the season.

Lastly, BHP takes advantage of more offensive errors on defense. As we laid out last week and will later in this post, BHP returns talent and experience in the linebacking core and safeties. With those two positions leading the way, I can see more interceptions and forced fumbles recovered by the defense. This combined with the schedule BHP will play, I can see the Bears forcing over 20 turnovers on defense this season.

Just like that, BHP will have 10 or fewer offensive turnovers and force 20 or more turnovers on defense which will give the Bears at least a +10 turnover differential.

3) BHP will set the school record for team rushing yards in both a game and in a season.

The BHP record for total team rushing yards in a season is 3,338 yards while the team record for rushing yards in a game is 509 yards. These numbers are staggering, but I believe both are in reach for this team.

The first we tackle is the game record. I will not only predict that it will happen, but I will also even say during which game. BHP will play Fountain Inn this season. This is the first season Fountain Inn has had a football team. With this, they will only be playing underclassmen because a senior class has not made it through the school. Because of that, BHP will overmatch the Fury and each rusher will have a big day rushing. I could see Henderson rushing for more than 250 yards along with Pendleton and Lathon with more than 100 yards. That will put BHP around 50 yards from setting the game record. As BHP extends the score, BHP will be allowing other players to get playing time and I see an assortment of players gaining a total of 75 yards to put them over the edge.

So with that record mapped out, let’s look at how this team can set the team season rushing record. As I presented in my first prediction, I can see BHP having two 1,000-yard rushers. Let’s say Henderson rushes for 1,500 yards and Pendleton rushes for 1,000. That gets us to 2,500 rushing yards. After the Jamboree against Washington Wilkes, it seems Omri Jackson and Justin Lathon will see a large amount of the work as they are giving Henderson time to rest (with Shaheem Robbs limited with injury). With that, I see Lathon gaining at least 450 yards this season and Jackson gaining over 250. This brings the season total to 3,200 total yards, or 138 yards short. We can account for those 138 yards with jet sweep runs from wide receivers and other miscellaneous runs from other backs not mentioned.

There you go, a logical presentation of how two of the all-time BHP rushing records will fall this year.

4) BHP will score 10 non-offensive touchdowns.

This may be the easiest prediction I make in this post, although last season’s stats may not support that. Last season BHP scored one touchdown on a punt return, none on kickoff returns, and three defensive touchdowns. Let’s dive into how we go from 4 to 10.

To start off, BHP will return four kickoffs for touchdowns this season. As long as BHP puts Marquise Henderson back to return kicks, his speed and vision will break at least four of these kick returns for touchdowns.

Next, BHP will block multiple kicks and punts this season. At least one of these blocks will be a punt that will then be returned for a touchdown.

Finally, BHP’s defense will be very opportunistic this season. As we laid out last week, the linebacker group will be very experienced this season. Because of that, they will lead the way with forced fumbles and use their coverage skills to jump into passing lanes for interceptions. Because of the speed BHP will put on the field at the linebacker positions, once these turnovers are caused, they will be able to outrun the offense and return at least 5 of these turnovers for touchdowns.

Offense is fun, but sometimes the turning point in games is these non-offensive touchdowns. Hopefully, BHP will force a lot of these types of touchdowns.

5) BHP will not lose a regular season game.

Yeah, I said it, undefeated. And with that BHP would also win their 12th region championship. Some may say this is the boldest pick so far, but I see a path where the season could unfold this way.

I see four games that are the turning point for an undefeated season (yes every game is a turning point if the objective is not losing, but go with me here). The first two of these four are the first two games of the season. BHP opens on the road at Westside. Opening games are always tough because of each team's unknowns. Plus, just remember last season when the game came down to a last-second field goal by BHP. Westside will be looking at this first win in a different way. After BHP, Westside takes on T.L. Hanna, Abbeville, Mauldin, Greer, then Greenville. Westside could and should see this opening game as a must-win because personally, I could see them not winning again until Week 7 against Pickens.

BHP will then host Laurens for the second game of the year. Laurens could be playing one of the toughest non-conference schedules in the state. They play Week 0 against Hillcrest, then Clinton, BHP, Chapman, Union County, and finally, T.L. Hanna. Laurens, like Westside, could be looking at BHP as a game they expect to win. However, they could overlook the Bears, or if they come in with two losses it could be a lost year in some of their minds.

The next game to point out is the opening game of region play against Powdersville. Last season BHP lost to Powdersville for the first time in Powdersville High School history. Hopefully, this season BHP will have game experience and will be focused on this matchup. Additionally, Powdersville will play Abbeville, Mauldin, Pendleton, and Hillcrest the four games before BHP. Powdersville went undefeated in the regular season last year. This year it will be interesting to see how will they perform after a loss and I do not see a way they come out of that four games set without at least one loss. Plus, this is the first season these two teams are in the same region, so this year it means a little more.

The last game I want to focus on is the last game of the regular season against Wren. Last year’s matchup against Wren was the heartbreaker of all heartbreakers for Bear fans. This year we hope it will be vastly different. One of the most notable is the departure of the Hurricane's starting quarterback and top receiver from last season. That combined with the game being played at home, I predict BHP completes the undefeated regular season with a region championship on the last game of the season.

And with that, the season is upon us. Next week we get to start seeing if these predictions will come true. Them Bears will be taking the field soon and we all should be excited about that.

Do you have any bold predictions for the season? Let us hear them on our social media accounts or in the comments below the post ( Facebook or Twitter).

Next week is game week and we will start our weekly Bear Tracks post, dropping every Wednesday. Make sure to check in with us next week as we get ready for Westside.

Go Bears!