2016 Stat Introduction

Offensive Line Stats

 

The first new stat category we will be introducing this year is a set of 4 stats created by Football Outsiders. These stats will help us understand and evaluate the offensive line and the overall rushing ability for both BHP and their opponents. Along with measuring BHP versus opponents, we will also determine how BHP stacks up against past seasons’ teams.

 

 

Power Success

 

This stat determines how efficient a team is at converting 3rd or 4th down plays where the team needs 2 or less yards for a first down or touchdown. With a definition like that it can be determined that this stat will be one of our favorites. Knowing how well a team is at converting crucial short yardage plays is very informative.

 

Stuffed Rate

 

Stuffed Rate is the percentage of rushes that result in a negative yardage outcome - the lower the number, the less negative rushes a team has. Knowing a stuffed rate can help to realize how well a team is at limiting negative rushes.

 

Second Level Yards

 

One of the most talked about advanced rushing stats is second level yards. Second level yards are the total average yards for a team on rushes from 5 – 10 yards. One of the essential responsibilities of an offensive lineman is to move or neutralize first level defenders and work to block second level defenders. This stat allows us to determine how well the team is at doing that. By calculating second level yards and coupling it with stuffed rate and power success, we can determine how well an offensive line creates consistent rushing lanes.

 

Open Field Yards

 

The last offensive line stat is open field yards. This determines the rushing average of rushes over 10 yards. This will give more of an insight of how explosive the team is. If a team has a high stuff rate, low second level yards, and a high open field yard average, then we know that the team relies on explosive plays rather than sustained rushing drives.

 

You can read more about these stats here.

 

Situational Stats

 

We also now have the ability to analyze situational stats. We will use traditional stats like average yards, rushes over 10 yards, and so many more. We will then break them down to how the team performs on certain downs and distances. For example, in 2015 BHP averaged 6.33 yards per rush on 1st down and at least 10 to go in the first quarter.

 

Team Scoring Efficiency

 

Expected Offensive TD & Expected Defensive TD

 

Our friends over at Forest Football Project have developed a team scoring efficiency stat, Expected Offensive Touchdowns. This stat formulates how many offensive touchdowns a team should expect to score based on how many plays they run and yards they gain. We will use this to see how efficient BHP and their opponents are at scoring offensive TDs. You can read more about this stat here.

 

They also developed a regression formula that can predict Expected Defensive TDs. We will use this in tandem with Expected Offensive TD to determine how well teams turn these stats into wins.

 

Conclusion

 

We will go deeper with each of these stats in later posts, but this post will give you an overview of what can be expected as we go through the season. We would love to get your feedback. If you have stats you want to know send them to us on Facebook or Twitter.